Yet another geek blog

3 May 2011

Some Animals are More Equal Than Others

Honestly, I hate ranting political blogs just as much as you. But I have now been sent two leaflets by the NO2AV campaign that I just cannot let pass.

I will not rant about the fact that they were sent by second class post to my full name which I never use.

I will not rant about the fact that they threaten me with coalition governments as if this had not just happened under FPTP.

But, this claim I will not let past:

Under AV, some peoples votes are counted more than others

We have Eight voters and Three parties:

Voter	Party
Julian	Diagonal Party
George	Horizontal Party
Dick	Vertical Party
Anne	Diagonal Party
Timmy	Curved Party
Quintin	Diagonal Party
Noddy	Horizontal Party
Enid	Vertical Party

Results

Diagonal	3
Horizontal	2
Vertical	2
Curved	1
Total	8

A clear win for the Diagonals. Hurrah!

Not so. Because the diagonals are still a minority. None of the parties here have 'made their case' to the voters.

Imagine if this were a government. Every time the Diagonals try to pass something the Horizontals and the Verticals vote against it. So everything depends on the Curved Party. If the curved Party votes for a bill it passes. If it votes against then the bill fails.

Only Timmy ever votes for the Curved Party. And Timmy is a dog.

This illustrates the fundamental problem of minority rule: The majority gets what the minority wants.

And Under AV?

Under AV, voters are allowed to express preferences. If (and only if) there is no majority then the weakest party is removed and the vote is taken again.

The voting is as follows:

Voter	Party
Julian	1 Diagonal
George	1 Horizontal	2 Vertical
Dick	1 Vertical	2 Horizontal
Anne	1 Diagonal	2 Vertical
Timmy	1 Curved	2 Vertical
Quintin	1 Diagonal
Noddy	1 Horizontal	2 Vertical
Enid	1 Vertical

Results

Party	Round One	Round Two	Round Three
Diagonal	3	3	3
Horizontal	2	2	-
Vertical	2	3	5
Curved	1	-	-
Total	8	8	8

Things to note

The fist preferences are exactly the same to the first round will go exactly the same. But, nobody got 5 votes so the Curved Party is out. This is why AV is being opposed by the likes on the BNP and the Communist Party.

I have constructed this so that the winner is a different party to the one that one the first round. The Diagonal voters claim that their votes have not been counted as much as anybody else's.

Is this fair? Well, look at the totals under the 'Round' columns. Eight voters, eight votes. Every time. Julian and Quentin may seem to have cast fewer votes those votes have been counted just as many times. All they want is the Diagonal Party and in each round their vote went to the diagonal party.

To visualise this, imagine that the voting slips looked like this:

Voter	Party
Julian	1 Diagonal	2 Diagonal
George	1 Horizontal	2 Vertical
Dick	1 Vertical	2 Horizontal
Anne	1 Diagonal	2 Vertical
Timmy	1 Curved	2 Vertical
Quintin	1 Diagonal	2 Diagonal
Noddy	1 Horizontal	2 Vertical
Enid	1 Vertical	2 Vertical

from this, you can have a stab at assessing the real levels of support for the parties:

Diagonal	5/16	31.25%
Vertical	7/16	43.75%
Horizontal	3/16	18.75%
Curved	1/16	06.25%

The Vertical Party has won because it was able to reach out. The majority gets what the minority wants has been replaced with: The majority gets what the majority is OK with. In other words, the Vertical candidate is a better representitave of the voters and that is the whole point of the exercise.

But...

But I only constructed a Vertical win because this is what upsets people about AV. If the Diagonals had been able broaden its appeal just slightly then they would have won. The actual losers are the Curved Party. They, not the Diagonals are the ones that have had votes taken away from them for the sake of a better democratic result.

So, to repeat, none of the parties have 'made their case' and so none deserve a majority. Not even the Verticals. AV is not a perfect system. But it is a tangible improvement that fixes a bug in FPTP and gives us something that is closer to what we want.

Labels: society